13 enero, 2008

El Tiempo Pasa...

Y el petróleo pasó de los USD 100;
y la guerra de Iraq se convirtió en la guerra que nadie recuerda;
y la invasión de Irán se convirtió en nuestro inevitable futuro;
y Musharraf (general dictador del país nuclear y república musulmana de Pakistán) impuso ley marcial y mandó a matar a su oponente político acusando a una organización extranjera (Al Qaeda) y EE.UU. no impuso sanción;
y Francia dió un giro hacia la derecha dura;
y en los territorios palestinos siguen muriendo niños por falta de agua y medicamentos;
y tres volcanes del cinturón de fuego han erupcionado en 2008 (hasta ahora);
y en Bolivia los secesionistas están cada día mas cerca de partir al país;
y el Estado de Chile firmó un tratado (por unos pocos dólares) con una empresa comercial extranjera (Microsoft) para venderle los datos de sus ciudadanos a cambio de imponer su tecnología "gratuitamente" (ya teníamos Hotmail);
y en Perú cayó un meteoro que enfermó a los que lo vieron un mes depues del terremoto;
y en Iraq aparecieron inexplicables columnas de luz apuntando hacia las estrellas...

Temas mas, temas menos que ya hemos comentado o inferido en eternas conversaciones con Trancos y en este blog.

Lo malo es que falta mucho mas por suceder, si es que se sigue cumpliendo el triste escenario.

06 enero, 2008

Revueltas por Alimentos en el Siglo XXI

Food riots of the 21st century

Jonathan Watts



06 January 2008 11:59

The risks of food riots and malnutrition will surge in the next two years as the global supply of grain comes under more pressure than at any time in 50 years, according to one of the world’s leading agricultural researchers.

Recent pasta protests in Italy, tortilla rallies in Mexico and onion demonstrations in India are just the start of the social instability to come unless there is a fundamental shift to boost production of staple foods, warned Joachim von Braun, the head of the International Food Policy Research Institute.

The growing appetite of China and other fast-developing nations has combined with the expansion of biofuel programmes in the United States and Europe to transform the global food situation.

After decades of expanding crop yields and falling food prices, the past year has seen a sharp rise in the cost of wheat, rice, corn, soya and dairy products.

“Demand is running away. The world has been consuming more than it produces for five years now. Stocks of grain and of rice, wheat and maize are down at levels not seen since the early 1980s,” said Von Braun, whose organisation is the world’s largest alliance of agricultural researchers, economists and policy experts.

So far, crises have been averted because states have eaten into national stocks, but this could be set to change because China, in particular, has run down its supplies.

“Over the next 12 to 24 months we are in a fairly risky situation. Large consuming nations, particularly China, will feel pressed to enter international markets to bid up prices to unusual levels,” Von Braun warned ahead of a speech to the institute’s AGM in Beijing.

Thanks to its manufacturing prowess China has huge foreign exchange reserves and could buy the global food crop several times over. But its consumers are already feeling the cost of food inflation. According to the local media three shoppers died last month in a stampede at a supermarket in Chongqing that was offering cheap rapeseed oil. The threat of instability has prompted Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to make the fight against food price rises one of his government’s priorities. So far it seems a losing battle.

Economic growth -- estimated at 11,5% in the first nine months of the year -- has made Chinese consumers wealthier, while urbanisation and globalisation has changed their diet. In October the government announced pork prices were up more than 50%, vegetables 30% and cooking oil 34% compared with the year before.

The knock-on is felt across the world. In rich nations it means a few more cents for breakfast cereal in the short term and a slightly higher cost for toys, clothes and other Chinese goods. But for the world’s poorest communities the rises will have a potentially devastating effect.

Bangladesh has had to ask for half a million tons of food aid -- a severe blow to the pride of a country that had been trying to wean itself off international assistance. Bangladeshi officials say the price of cooking oil, of which it imports 1,2-million tons a year, has almost tripled in the past two years because it is now valued as an alternative to diesel oil. More worryingly, their main staple of rice is hard to buy at any price because India, Vietnam and Ukraine have cut exports.

Added to this are the pressures caused by global warming, which have been blamed for the droughts that damaged crops in Australia this year.

The social tensions caused by rising food prices are already evident, says Von Braun. “The first sign was the tortilla riot in Mexico city, where 70 000 took to the streets. I think that was only the beginning -- there will be more,” said Von Braun.

“For a year or two countries can stabilise with stocks. But the risk comes in the next 12 to 24 months. The countries that cannot afford to buy will be the losers, while those with huge foreign exchange reserves will bid up the world market.”

Von Braun called on Europe to reconsider its biofuel policies, to provide more aid to poor nations, to keep markets open and to boost production. -- © Guardian News & Media Ltd 2007